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| Steel price surge in sales of businesses to wait and see mood increased |
| publishers：Boxing Shandong Guan Tang steel plate Co., Ltd. Release time：2016/9/8 reading：9418次 |
Recently, various types of steel prices in collective hurricane caused the market attention, at the end of last year, steel stocks in recent shipments, profits of up to 500 - 800 yuan / ton. But behind the high price of steel is a substantial reduction in sales, many steel traders for the market sentiment strong. Analysis of the industry: capital speculation is an important factor in the futures market surge, upstream raw material tension, the supply and demand side of the base is a catalyst.
Crazy rebar rose over a thousand
Since January this year, steel prices rose for several months, the Industry Research Institute database data show: April 22, 2016 rebar (model: HRB400 20MM) market price reached 3118 yuan / ton, compared to January 4, 2016, the average price of 2034 yuan / ton rose 53.3%.
Data show that in January 20th, the price for the first time released news in the Kunming Kunming Steel market, steel, plate, wire rod were raised 20 yuan / ton, the price of 2550 yuan / ton to 2730 yuan / ton, 2650 yuan / ton to 2980 yuan / ton, 2590 yuan / ton. Since then, and after a number of steel prices, in April 22nd, Kunming again adjust the price of construction steel factory: rebar, wire rod and plate are respectively raised 60 yuan / ton, the price rose to 3310 yuan / ton, 3430 - 3490 - 3760 yuan / ton, 3370 yuan / ton.
The price of steel in the steel market in wad also continued to rise, remain high in the near future. A merchant said, recently even a day three up phenomenon, screw steel, wire rod and plate each rise between 20 to 100 yuan / ton, after several times after the rise, the average price from the end of the 2000 yuan rose to 3000 yuan now, or over a thousand.
Steel prices rose more than 10% a week, which is the domestic steel market for many years not seen. Market has been a bit too cold feeling, the business sentiment increased, the general expectation is that there will be some adjustment.
Inventory per ton of profits up to 500 - 800 yuan spot profit of only 50 yuan / ton
Data show that in 2014 the Yunnan market more than half of the steel trade profit per ton less than 10 yuan, followed by the steel trade day. There are institutions in Yunnan Province, Kunming city as an example, the first half of 2015, the steel trade closed down 50, accounting for 10%; one of the 100, accounting for 20%. This phenomenon has improved in January this year.
There are more than 1 thousand agents of steel and steel market stingy, stock spot bring huge profits.
Kunming Houz Trade Co. Ltd. has two warehouses in CLAM steel market, the end of January this year, gradually accumulate more than 1 thousand tons of steel. Sales Manager Qiu Zhenxiong introduction, the end of January, the rebar, wire plate prices were 2200 - 2300 yuan / ton, 2600 yuan / ton, 2700 yuan / ton, the average price rose 800 yuan / ton, shipment, earn 500 yuan per ton of steel profits.
"At present, the profits of all kinds of steel in 50 yuan - 800 yuan / ton." The sales manager of Kunming Jin Yao Trade Co., Ltd. Li Xianjia said, the company every day replenishment, replenishment number, total remained between 2000 and 3000 tons. Warehouse inventory and spot, the end of last year, the end of the stock profit per ton of about 800 yuan, in February this year, after the stock profit of about 500 yuan, but the recent spot profit of only about 50 yuan.
Li Xianjia believes that the rapid rise in the price of iron ore spot meager profits the main source, large scale steel prices swallowed profits, iron ore prices have surged to 1 year highs. According to the data collected by Steel Index The, the northern iron ore prices rose 4%, has been as high as 64.30 U.S. dollars / ton, which is since last June, the highest level since the middle of last year. The iron ore shot up 11.8% in a week, up nearly 50% from the beginning of the year, and nearly 75% in the last ten years since the middle of last December.
Steel prices rose shipments were reduced by more than 4
In the rise of steel prices at the same time, there is a phenomenon worthy of attention, the current steel demand for steel is not significantly improved, the daily shipments of steel market is gradually reduced.
Most vendors said that the market for each merchant's rising volume from the peak period of 6000 - 5000 tons down to the current 2000 tons, down 67% - 60%. At the same time, under the pressure of sales to reduce the pressure, the business is also down inventory.
Fujian fruit of steel Qiu Zhenhui mainly sales volume and angle steel. Since the steel prices soaring, the inventory of two kinds of steel have been adjusted to the original 1/4. The current inventory of steel volume of 400 tons, sales from the previous more than and 30 tons / day to 4 tons / day, a decline of 87%; inventory angle was more than 1 thousand tons, sales from more than and 100 tons / day to more than and 60 tons / day, a decline of 40%.
Qiu Zhenhui said that from the point of view of steel demand, the national economic growth is still in a mild state, there are still downside risks, the global economic slowdown, weakening demand. From the long view, the downstream market of steel concentrated in infrastructure and real estate development in the past, the gold in ten years, with the rapid development of China economy, infrastructure and real estate development has almost close to the peak. In such a large environment, the demand for steel in the future will not be as large as in the past ten years. Due to lack of confidence in the market demand, more steel mills have chosen to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. This round of steel price rise momentum is too rapid, it seems that some of the laws of the market.
Less shipping volume
Steel prices fluctuate significantly, but the transportation cost is basically stable, the price according to the division of transport lines. Starting from Kunming to Yunnan each district, the price remained at between 40 - 350 yuan / ton, freight is the cheapest in Kunming to Yuxi, the freight is 40-60 yuan / ton, price is the most expensive Simon, Deqin, freight is 300 - 350 yuan / ton.
Recently, stingy market slightly deserted, vendors and shipping workers sit in the steel market into the chat, shipment of steel truck is also one of the few.
The driver master yuan: "when steel sales good, I give the stone forest site materials, go twice per trip, 10 tons of freight transport, almost 1200 yuan, remove oil fees, tolls, vehicle maintenance fees, profits of nearly half a day can earn 1000 yuan. But now the market is depressed, sometimes a day can only be a trip, and sometimes not a day of business."
Capital speculation or an important factor into soaring
The concern is that the current iron and steel downstream steel demand has not improved significantly, downward cycle in the overall economic situation is likely to continue, now steel and ore price Qi Zhang situation is still bottoming flower briefly as the broad-leaved epiphyllum, pick up?
The industry generally believe that steel prices rose, mainly affected by the futures price of iron ore and the strong, tight factors such as the resources available for sale.
Li Xianjia said, "Yunnan construction steel prices rose by five network to a certain extent, the impact of policies, Yunnan's five largest infrastructure network started 156 projects, the demand for steel products increased significantly, traders have the market to push up the price of steel. At the same time, with the increasing demand of downstream construction industry, building materials trading volume increased significantly, steel stocks significantly reduced. But because the manufacturers and vendors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude, not a lot of production and replenishment, the chain began to return to work after, at the time of purchase that trader have no goods. After last year's winter, the production of steel mills to form depressions, so demand up, short supply, the formation of a short supply and demand mismatch. Demand in the first quarter of this year is expected to be more than expected, the intensity of the recent policy is also relatively large. The supply side, mills dismal performance in the last year, the operating rate dropped a lot, some of the steel capital chain rupture in the last year, there is a certain degree of difficulty of short-term production. At the policy level, the supply side reforms to steel production capacity and Tangshan Expo limited production expectations, makes the market doubts for the future steel production growth, short-term smooth delivery, steel inventories declined rapidly. Kunming held at the end of the 2016 production and management work meeting, revealed in response to the national "supply side reforms" and the capacity to plan, 2016 will cut about 10%. In 2016, Kunming Iron and steel production will be reduced by 10% in 2015 on the basis of maintaining 6 million 100 thousand tons.
As for iron ore, steel and other commodity futures prices continue to record, investment agency pointed out that the current China commodity futures market prices reflect the capital market there is excessive speculation.
"Capital speculation is an important factor in the futures market surge. The fundamentals of supply and demand is a catalyst, surge is the short-term funds taking advantage of speculation in the shipping nervous." Futures analyst Wu Jiajian believes that the current steel prices in a short period of time so rose, has been a little out of the fundamentals of supply and demand. China's recent surge in futures trading, especially in the Dalian commodity exchange trading of iron ore has reached four times the same period last year, an increase in speculation. In the past month, there are two trading days of iron ore futures trading volume over the whole of China in 2015 9.5 tons of imports of the situation. The current demand is not enough to support the long-term futures prices rise, the market is still faced with the problem of excess supply, futures fluctuate largely speculators betting on the recent Chinese expenditure in the field of infrastructure will increase up the price of raw materials. With the China government introduced new measures to curb speculation, the prices are likely to be controlled. Speculation driven futures price increases are not sustainable.
At the same time, Wu Jiajian believes that the policy side of the same factors deserve attention. Upstream steel industry in the supply side of the reform in the context of strict control of production, resulting in short-term tension on the upper reaches of the resources, the price of coal coke steel industry chain raised to a supporting role. Upstream raw material is also tight, the entire industry chain prices are on the upgrade. The current market prices improve, will stimulate many steel enterprises to speed up the resumption of production, to actively increase the excess supply of steel, the attendant, is again on the steel price suppression. Steel production overcapacity serious contradiction remains to be resolved. 2015, China's crude steel production capacity of up to 12 tons, production capacity utilization fell to less than 67%, far below the international normal level. According to the central deployment, China will Yajian 100 million to 1.5 tons of crude steel production capacity in the next 5 years, it will be an uphill battle. Before the production capacity to achieve substantial progress, China's iron and steel industry will continue to face the problem of excess production capacity. In March this year, the national steel output has exceeded 7 million 760 thousand tons, but the market demand and no obvious rise, most areas are showing signs of wait-and-see and poor turnover. Steel prices are expected in May under the pressure of production capacity, will fall again. |
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